Gabe Feldman – RSAC Writer
First, to calculate the probability of hitting 6 posts, we need to calculate the probability of Cody Parkey hitting a post on any given kick. The first step is to find out what the chances are of hitting the post when kicking within the green zone (The area in between the goal posts and the goal posts themselves). On average, a kicker’s field goal or extra point hit the post roughly once every 50 kicks. Since Cody Parkey attempted 198 kicks* from 2014-2017 and there is no data on whether individual kicks hit the uprights, I decided to add four off-the-post balls to the total number of kicks in the green zone. After adding the estimated number of deflected balls, I calculated that Parkey’s green zone percentage on all kicks* is about 91.7%.
Next, I needed to find out the percentage of a kick hitting the uprights that is kicked within the green zone. To do this I took the combined diameter of the goal posts (1 ft) and divided that by the total number of ft in the green zone. (19.5 ft) The quotient of this equation is .0512 meaning the odds of a kick that is kicked within the green zone hitting either post is about 5.12%. However, we must take the probability of a kick landing within the green zone into account. As mentioned before, Parkey’s probability of kicking a ball within the green zone is 91.7%. With that information, we can set up a proportion to find the probability of any given kick hitting the uprights: 100/91.7=5.12/x**. The solution to this equation is about 4.695, meaning the chances of hitting the post on any kick is about 4.695%
Now, we need to calculate the odds that Cody Parkey hits goal posts 6 times in 75 fg and exp attempts. To calculate this, I used the combination probability formula. This step in the process is mostly mathematical, so rather than explaining, I will provide a step by step process of how I found my final number.
(nCx)(px)(qn-x) n=75 p=.04695 q=95.305
75 C 6=20135955
20135955 ((0.04695)^6)*((0.95305)^69)=.0078 or about .78%
Odds of Parkey hitting the post 6 times out of 75 attempts=.78%
You have a better chance of flipping 7 straight heads, rolling 3 straight 6s or correctly guessing a random number out of 128!
Other notable stats:
Odds of Parkey hitting the post zero times out of 75 attempts=27.14%
Odds of Parkey hitting the post one time out of 75 attempts=10.02%
Odds of Parkey hitting the post on a field goal in any attempt in between 40-49 yards=3.6%